Top 5 Thursday Night Football Props Week 5

WHAT IS UP GRINDERS!??!?!

We are coming off a 2-2 day Monday on official plays but we hit ANOTHER MOJO FIRST TD BET now going three of our last four.

Still on a 35-15 (69% Win Rate) Run over the last three weeks and I think we have a great shot at staying hot tonight.

Also for people who like to win. My other favorite betting newsletter is DFSnDonuts. Would highly recommend to anyone who wants more content like this.

As for tonight, this is an interesting game with the Commanders and Bears that can get overlooked but after looking deeper into this game, there are some really intriguing spots here.

Before we get into the plays, make sure to take them with these dynamite deals:

Best Deals for Thursday Night Football:

Underdog has a Justin Fields Over 0.5 Total Yards Free Square Tonight for new users. This is an easy way to get a quick win (code CARUSO)

ParlayPlay gives an extra $25 to anyone with an entry that has Justin Fields in it.

Chalkboard also discounted THREE Plays for tonight with no max limit on your entries unlike other apps (Code: CARUSO). They discounted:

Brian Robinson 68.5 Rush Yards to 58.5 Rush Yards

Khalil Herbert 49.5 Rush Yards to 42.5 Rush Yards

Terry McLaurin 60.5 Receiving Yards to 52.5 Receiving Yards

I will put all my plays for the discounts as the bottom and I am tracking all my public bets on Pikkit. You can link all your sports books in one place there.

Now, without further ado our best plays for today starting with the:

Mojo Play of the Day: DJ Moore +981 First TD (Mojo)

The Bears are coming off a soul crushing loss to the Broncos and DJ Moore has been a rare bright spot for this team. He has TDs in back to back games and has a prime matchup against these Commanders CBs that have struggled as of late and if the Bears score early, it seems like DJ Moore should be the guy

Will give $200 to one person who tails on Mojo of this hits. Use code Caruso if you’re new. (We have literally hit 3 of the last 4 first TD bets).

Logan Thomas Over 2.5 receptions (Chalkboard, Sleeper)

The Bears run Cover 2+3 on most of their defensive snaps and Logan Thomas sees a 22% Target per Route Run rate vs these coverages compared to 14% vs any others which is a MASSIVE difference. The Bears have also given up the 3rd most receptions and 10th most receiving yards to TEs which furthers the hype for Thomas this week. This line is astronomically low and he is shaping up to have a huge game. I would also take the 28.5 receiving yards line but prefer receptions.

Antonio Gibson Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog, Chalkboard, Sleeper)

The Bears have given up the SINGLE MOST Receiving Yards to RBs this season and are allowing the highest yards per reception to any team at the RB Position. This is perfect because Antonio Gibson has seen the 5th most routes of any RB in the league and has seen a target on 18% of his routes vs the Commanders main two forms of coverage the last two years. Gibson has been brutal but this is a perfect time for him to cash the over.

Cole Kmet Over 3 receptions (Underdog, ParlayPlay)

Kmet sees a 21% increase in targets vs Cover 3 and Cover 4 which Commanders run on 50% of their snaps and has hit this number in three of four games so far this season. The line is so low because Washington has been tough against TEs but Kmet has the highest target share vs these coverages of any TE they have faced thus far and the 3.0 line should be a push at worst.

Cairo Santos Over 5.5 Kicking Points (Underdog, ParlayPlay)

No team has given up more points to kickers this year and every kicker has gone over this line with at least 2 field goals. Washington has also given up mostly 30-39 yard field goals which Santos has hit 45 straight inside of 40 dating back to 2021. His line is only 5.5 because he has gone under two straight games vs “Tough Kicker Matchups” but hit 7+ KP in both games when not facing a Top 10 team vs kickers.

Best Underdog Free Square Play:

Justin Fields Over 0.5 total yards, Antonio Gibson Over 14.5 Receiving Yards

Chalkboard Discount Plays of the Day

Brian Robinson Over 58.5 Rushing Yards, DJ Moore Over 59.5 Receiving Yards

Khalil Herbert O 42.5 Rush Yards, Logan Thomas O 2.5 Receptions

Terry McLaurin O 52.5 Receiving Yards, Cole Kmet O 3.5 Receptions (this line pays out extra since it is harder to hit)

That is it for now. More Player Props to come Saturday for Week 5 Sunday Football so stay tuned.

Until that time,

Let’s. Keep. Grinding.

-Caruso