Top 5 Thursday Night Football Props Week 4

WHAT IS UP GRINDERS!?!??!

We are SO BACK for Thursday Night Football. We are on a 23-7 Heater (77% Win Rate) over the last 2 weeks and I have been in the lab cooking up so much player prop goodness for you all today.

But first, we have some ELITE Promotions for tonight. This might be the best night of promos/giveaways in a while.

Promos: (Code CARUSO so I can feed my family)

Underdog Free Pick: Jared Goff Over 0.5 Pass Yards (for new users only) This is the easiest way to make money on Underdog with these free Promos

Chalkboard MEGA Discounted Lines with NO MAX LIMIT on how much you can use to place their bets. They added

Sam LaPorta 45.5 Rec Yards to 39.5 Rec Yards

Jordan Love 233.5 Pass Yards to 219.5 Pass Yarda

Amon-Ra St Brown 75.5 Rec Yards to 66.5 Rec Yards

Sleeper Discount: Sam LaPorta Over 4.5 Receptions to 3.5 Receptions

These discounted picks hit at an 80% rate when they get the 10% discount and with no max we can take big advantage. I will put my extra chalkboard discount plays at the bottom!

Giveaway:

$100 to one person who signs up on Pikkit using code CARUSO. They will be my premiere place to track all of my bets so you guys can see them as I place them. Its a free app and you can link any sports book to it so you can see how your bets do. They also send you $3 just for signing up and linking one book to your account.

Props for Tonight:

Now that we got the housekeeping out of the way. Its time to get into today’s plays starting with the:

Mojo Play of the Day: Amon-Ra St Brown +624 (Mojo)

St Brown has been feasting in the target, reception, and yards market but has not found the end zone the last two weeks despite seeing 100+ receiving yards in each game. He will largely avoid the Packers toughest corners and will continue to be Jared Goff’s clear #1 Target.

Other Plays I Love:

Amon-Ra St Brown Over 9.0 Targets (Underdog)

St Brown has hit 9+ in every single game with 80%+ of the snaps since the start of 2022. Jaire Alexander is the toughest corner for the Packers and he only plays the slot 4% of the time and ARSB is in there 50% of his snaps. This is an absolute lock every week and St Brown is completely off the injury report and should be full go once again this week.

Jordan Love Over 32.5 Pass Attempts (Underdog, PrizePicks)

Every QB against the Lions has at least 38 pass attempts (even Desmond Ridder). Detroit has an awesome run defense which has forced every team to pass more against them than normal. The Packers will get Christian Watson back, and are underdogs in this game. Love went under against the Bears and Falcons who are two of the slowest and worst offenses in the NFL and should have to pass much more against a high powered Lions offense.

Sam LaPorta Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (Mojo, Underdog, PrizePicks)

The Packers play 60% Cover 3 and LaPorta is seeing a target on 30% of his routes with a mega elite 4.8 yards per route run vs this coverage. He has also increased his yardage and targets every game this season and the Packers just gave up 11 targets to Jonnu Smith and Kyle Pitts last week after De’Vondre Campbell got hurt (out tonight). TEs are averaging over 10 yards per reception vs the Packers which gives a slight edge to the yards versus LaPorta’s 4.5 reception line.

Christian Watson Over 2.5 Receptions (Sleeper)

Watson is expected to be in a big role tonight after slow playing his return for so long (Romeo Doubs got 70% routes when he returned) and Watson is exactly what this offense has been missing. Per Graham Barfield “Jordan Love ranks 1st in average depth of target and 3rd in deep throw rate (16.8% attempts go 20+ yards). On throws of 10+ yards, Love has the 10th best catchable pass rate of 72.5%. The Lions also run heavy Cover 3 and 4 where Watson has a 22% target per route run and 25% air yards share. This is a perfect get right game against bad corners that have yet to be tested.

My Chalkboard Plays with the Discounted Lines:

Play 1: Sam LaPorta O 39.5 Receiving Yards, Jordan Love O 33.5 Pass Attempts

Play 2: Amon-Ra St Brown O 66.5 Receiving Yards, Christian Watson O 38.5 Rec Yards

Play 3: Jordan Love O 219.5 Pass Yards, Sam LaPorta O45.5 Rec Yards (Note Chalkboard receiving line is higher than the books I have listed above but still love this play even at 45.5

Sleeper Discount Play:

Sam LaPorta Over 3.5 Receptions, Christian Watson Over 2.5 Receptions

That is all for today!

More Plays to come on Saturday for my Favorite Weekend Plays on Sunday.

Until that time,

Let’s keep grinding,

-Caruso