Top 5 Player Props for Sunday Week 4

WHAT IS UP GRINDERS???

We had a solid day on Thursday hitting our second first TD bet in three tries!

In addition to being on a 25-9 run hitting 74% of our official plays the last two weeks.

I have spent the last 36 hours sorting through over 100+ plays to break it down to my five favorites for this week.

But let’s start with the Important Promos this week:

Underdog is offering a Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Total Yards Free Square for new users. All my plays today are on Underdog and this Mahomes play is a perfect pairing for any of these picks

Pikkit is also going to give someone $100 just for signing up on their free bet tracking app. This is also where you can find all my plays I take on every app.

As always make sure to use Code: CARUSO if you are new to any of these apps when you sign up so I can move into an apartment without mice!

And without further ado, let’s start with the

Mojo Play of the Day: Stefon Diggs Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (Mojo, Underdog, PrizePicks)

The Bills face the Dolphons who play Cover 3+6 on about two thirds of their snaps. Diggs sees an insane 29% target per route run vs these coverages compared to 23% vs all others. Josh Allen also is far better against these two coverages than any others. Diggs is also expected to see the burnt toast king Eli Apple on over 50% of his snaps. With the highest game total on the slate, this feels like a huge Diggs game.

Tank Dell Over 3.5 Receptions (Underdog, PrizePicks, Chalkboard)

Dell’s first read target share has gone up each week and he will mostly going against Steelers CB Levi Wallace who gets targeted on a team high 18% of his coverage snaps. The Steelers also run Cover 3 over double the amount of the next highest coverage and Dell has the highest target share, air yards share, and target per route run against Cover 3 on the Texans. This is a prime spot for him

Jerick McKinnon Under 10.5 Rush Yards (Underdog, PrizePicks, Chalkboard)

McKinnon has seen just 3 carries this season and 2 of them came after the Chiefs were up 40+ points last week. He has not hit 10+ rush yards this year and is facing a Jets defense allowing just 3.6 yards per carry which is one of the lowest rates in the league. This game has the Chiefs favored by only 8.5 points which means they are less likely to be up 40 giving McKinnon carries again.

Puka Nacua Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog, PrizePicks, Chalkboard)

Puka 72 or more receiving yards in every game this season and has seen a target on over 40% of his routes vs both Cover 3 and Zone which the Colts run over 85% of the time. The Colts also get a lot of pressure and the Rams O line is horrible which favors the short and intermediate routes. The other play here would be Tutu Atwell but his target rates fall off a cliff vs zone and Cover 3 compared to everything else which shapes up this game to be a Puka special even more.

Calvin Ridley Over 5.0 Receptions (Underdog, PrizePicks)

Ridley’s target line is at 10.0 right now which means books expect him to see the ball early and often against the Falcons (revenge game) after seeing 11,7, and 8 targets over the first three games. Atlanta also mostly runs cover 3 and cover 1 and Ridley vs these coverages has a 30% target share, 28% target per route run and a 42% air yards share. Trevor Lawerence is also much better against these coverages than any others making this a prime matchup for him.

This might be my favorite card of the whole season. I love these WR plays this week as these WRs and QBs both succeed against the main coverages and makes these plays better than normal.

IMPORTANT: I will be sending an updated email Sunday morning at exactly 10am ET (3 hours before the main slate) which will include additional plays and cover any other critical information that comes out overnight.

Make sure to spend 30 seconds checking that email update tomorrow before the main slate kickoff to be fully prepared for the games.

Until that time,

Lets. Keep. GRINDING.

-Caruso