Sportsbooks will lose MILLIONS off of this

The First Football Sunday is Here!

Sportsbooks are now more down bad than ever and you can get up to $300 in Free Bets in addition to free squares accessible on almost every major book

The Promotions to Take Advantage Of:

Dak Prescott Over 0.5 Pass Yards (PrizePicks)

Saquon Barkley Over 0.5 Total Yards (Underdog)

Christian McCaffrey Over 0.5 Rush Yards (Sleeper)

All these books will match your first deposit 100% up to $100 if you use Code: Caruso when you sign up in addition to giving you the free squares this weekend.

Ok ok, I know gimme your props Alex! You’re here to watch RedZone for 7 hours of that sweet commercial free football on Sunday. Lets get it!

Play of the Day:

JK Dobbins Over 58.5 Rush Yards (Mojo)

The Ravens play the Texans who allowed 170 rush yards per game last year and did almost nothing to improve their run defense. Dobbins also averaged 99 rush yards per game after returning from injury last year and hit the over in all four games. Baltimore is also 10 point favorites which favors the positive game script to run the ball even more in what could be an early season blowout. This is a sweet prop to take on Mojo as you can enter in a prop contest where a massive game from Dobbins beyond the Over 58.5 yards could win you even more money.

Other Props I love:

Michael Thomas O 3.5 Receptions (Sleeper, Underdog, PrizePicks)

Michael Thomas has 4+ receptions in 70/73 career games. He has been full go in Saints practices all summer and medical data suggests his body is at full strength to start the season. They are playing the Titans who had the worst secondary in football last year while allowing the 2nd most receptions per game. Alvin Kamara is out and Kendre Miller did not practice all week and should miss Sunday’s game which leaves Jamaal Williams who had just 12 receptions in 17 games last year. Which will leave plenty of extra targets for WRs up grabs to get the Slant God over this line easily.

Calvin Ridley O5.0 Receptions (Sleeper, Underdog, PrizePicks)

The Colts outside corners are the biggest weakness on their defense with Stephon Gilmore leaving for the Cowboys. He saw a target on 31% of his preseason snaps which is important when the Jags averaged 36 pass attempts per game last year.

If the Jags hit their average of 36 pass attempts this is how many targets Ridley would get:

31% Target per Route Run x 36 Pass Attempts= 11.6 targets

28% TPRR x 36 Pass Attempts= 10 targets

25% TPRR x 36 Pass Attempts=9 targets

20% TPRR x 36 Pass Attempts= 7 targets

Ridley has at least 5 receptions in 27/29 career games with 7+ Targets. He should be a virtual lock if he can just see a target on roughly 20% of his routes against one of the worst secondaries in football.

Khalil Herbert Over 11 rush attempts (Underdog)

Herbert has 6 career games over 50% of the snaps. He has 18+ rush attempts in every single one of those games. If you drop his snaps to 40%, then he his 12+ rush attempts in 7 of 8 games. His only miss was against the Bills in a game the Bears got crushed but now they play a Packers team where the Bears are the favorite to win the game. Herbert is expected to be the clear #1 RB on this team and should see the vast majority of the carries.

Kirk Cousins Over 18 Fantasy Score (Underdog, PrizePicks)

Kirk has been at his best at home 1pm games. Last year Kirk went over in 5 of 6 home 1pm games with his only miss against the top ranked Jets secondary. Kirk in season openers has hit in three straight years as well. The Vikings have the 5th highest implied team total this week at 25.5 points and without Dalvin Cook are supposed to lean on the passing game more than ever. The addition of Jordan Addison is an upgrade over Adam Thielen and a full offseason for TJ Hockenson in this offense will only make this team more dangerous.

Geno Smith Over 1.5 Pass TDs (Sleeper)

Geno has hit 2+ Pass TDs in 13 of his last 18 games last season and per DrProfit “The Rams run Cover 3 and Cover 6 70% of the time where Geno Smith lead the NFL in fantasy points per snap vs those coverages and completed passes at a 72.9% pass rate”. The Rams are slaso starting 8 of 11 guys that are rookies or guys taken in the 6th round or later of the NFL Draft. This is a dream matchup for Geno and the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba will help him even more.

These are the best props for this weekend and multiple you can use to pair with all of the free squares.

Until next time…

Let’s keep grinding,

-Caruso