Insane Values on NFL Opening Night

THE NFL IS BACK!

I hope you are as pumped as I am to watch grown men in shoulder pads duke it out over a white laced pigskin again. Is there anything better than that every single Sunday, Monday, and Thursday Night? Highly doubt it.

But with Football officially as back as ripped jeans on a Tuesday night, we have some delicious props I have been salivating over the last few days.

Don’t forget this is always tale at your own risk always.

Free Promotions to Take Advantage Of

Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Total Yards (Underdog, Parlay Play)

This is a “Free Square” on both apps everyone should be taking especially if you have not signed up and they will give you up to $100 in free bets just for joining. (Code: CARUSO)

New Segment

An additional part of each NFL Game will be the Mojo Player Prop of the Day. They have unique player prop contests that make it the most flexible place for prop bets on the market where you can mix and match props DURING a game so you can keep finding ways to win even if your first prop is not hitting early on.

Mojo Player Prop of the Day:

Skyy Moore U48.5 Receiving Yards (Mojo)

This is a huge value play. His line for the under at 45.5 on every book right now at -125 odds (55%). If his line was 48.5 like it is on Mojo, it closer to a 60% chance of going under. Obviously 2023 is a new year but Moore has hit this over in just 1/18 games in his career and has crossed a 50% snap share or even 40 receiving yards just once ever. Mojo really dropped the ball on how easy this line is to expose and this is the only book with this line.

Other Props I love:

Amon-Ra St Brown Over 6.5 Receptions (Underdog, ParlayPlay)

DGF tool says Fanduel has his over 6.5 receptions at -146 which gives us a 59% implied odds at winning. Per Outlier: St Brown has hit this in 6 of his last 9 games and plays KC who allowed the 5th most receptions to WRs last year. This game is one of two the whole week with over a 50 point total between the two teams which means it is expected to have a ton of points while playing at a fast pace. I am all in on this line.

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 3.5 Receptions (Mojo, Underdog, ParlayPlay)

The Chiefs gave up the SINGLE MOST Receptions per game last year to RBs. Jared Goff has targeted the RB Position at an above average rate over the last two years since joining the Lions. Their OC Ben Johnson said he would be used “all over the field” this season and with Jameson Williams OUT for the first 6 weeks off suspension, Bovada has him at -145 (59% implied odds). Gibbs is the perfect play before books catch on to just how much he will be used in his first game

Isiah Pacheco Over 51.5 Rush Yards (Mojo, Underdog)

Per Outlier “Isiah Pacheco has exceeded 58 rushing yards in 10 of his last 12 games (69.2 rushing yards/game average)”. The Lions also allowed RBs 146.5 rush yards per game last year which was 4th worst in the NFL on top of the 3rd highest rush Yards per carry (5.2). Also in Pacheco’s favor is both ways game script could go. 1. The Chiefs are without Travis Kelce and lean more on the run game without a clear #1 Receiver or 2. The Chiefs do have Kelce somehow and lead in a positive game script which means more running for Pacheco.

Sam LaPorta Under 31.5 Receiving Yards (ParlayPlay)

On paper this seems like we should take the over. But my good friend NoahMoreParties pointed out “among 43 TEs drafted in the second or third round in the last 10 years, only two hit the over in their NFL debut” That is a 5% hit rate and one of them was Gerald Everett did it on just one catch for 39 yards. The DGF Tool has Caesars sports book at -131 odds for this Under which is 57% implied odds. This line is also 29.5 on both Underdog and PrizePicks for another nice advantage.

BONUS Prop:

Kerby Joseph Under 4.5 Tackles (Underdog, ParlayPlay)

The DGF Tool has BET MGM at -155 which is (61%) implied odds. The biggest value I have seen for any prop on a DFS Sportsbook. Other books like DraftKings, Barstool, and Fliff all have him at -135 or higher which is minimum 57.5% implied odds. Tackles is a boring prop but I will be sprinkling this into my picks.

I will be giving $100 to one person who tails if we sweep this!

Can not wait for this first game and Football Sunday coming soon.

Let’s keep grinding,

-Caruso