Four Best Player Props for Sunday Week 7

WHAT IS UP GRINDERS!?!?!

We are STILL on an insane run lately hitting 19-9 (68% Win Rate) over the last two weeks. And I can not wait for this Sunday.

I have been in the lab non stop getting my best plays together for you all this weekend and I have four plays I absolutely love that you should be taking with these EASY wins:

Underdog has FOUR Free Squares right now:

Lamar Jackson Over 0.5 Total Yards (for new users)

Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 Total Yards (for new users)

Jalen Hurts Over 0.5 Total Yards (for new users)

Lebron James Over 0.5 Points (for anyone)

Sleeper has a Free Square:

AJ Brown’s Over 0.5 Rec Yards (for new users)

PrizePicks has a Free Square as well:

Stephen Curry Over 0.5 Points 

Take all of these with code CARUSO if you are new to any of the apps today. It’s the best way to support me keeping all of my picks free.

And every bet I place is tracked publicly on Pikkit (best place to track all of your bets on any sports book)

But now it is time for the best plays on Sunday starting with the:

Mojo Play of the Day: Tyler Lockett Over 57 Receiving Yards (Mojo, Underdog, Sleeper)

The Cardinals Run Cover 3 + 4 on 60% of their snaps and Tyler Lockett has seen a 29% target rate vs these coverages (second highest is DK Metcalf at 18%). Lockett also sees 49% of his teams air yards vs this coverage meaning he gets all the deeper plays the Cardinals have been BRUTAL versus WRs lately. Brandon Aiyuk, Cooper Kupp, and Ja’Marr Chase all had AT LEAST 148 Receiving Yards vs these coverages. DK Metcalf is also a game time decision dealing with both hip and rib injuries which could further help Lockett in this matchup. Regardless he dominates vs these coverages and the Cardinals have 2 of the worst 6 CBs in the league and Lockett will see them on roughly 70% of his snaps.

D’Andre Swift over 62.5 Rush Yards (Underdog, Sleeper)

Swift is playing the Dolphins who have a middling run defense that really struggles against zone concept runs which is the strength of the Eagles defense. The Eagles also get RT Lane Johnson back who is a massive upgrade to this offense line and the key to shutting the high powered Dolphins offense will be running the ball and executing long possessions which will mean lots of runs for Swift. He is the clear 1A in this backfield and this is a great matchup for him after struggling last week.

Desmond Ridder Over 29.5 Pass Attempts (Underdog, PrizePicks)

The Bucaneers allow the highest pass rate over expected in the NFL largely in part to having the 3rd best rushing EPA in the NFL. Opponents are averaging 38 pass attempts per game and per AustinsProps, the Bucs allowed every QB to go over except Justin Fields who finished with exactly 29 on the dot. But The Bears are 29th in pass attempts per game and the Falcons rank 16th (big difference). This is a prime spot for them when they average 34 pass attempts per game as a team and play the team that allows more passes over expected than any other team in the league.

Lamar Jackson Over 28.5 Pass Attempts (Underdog, PrizePicks)

This one is simple, the Lions this year have allowed 36, 41, 38, 41, 39, 37 pass attempts in their six games this year. They allowed 37 and 38 to the Bucs and Packers who rank 24th and 26th in pass attempts this year. Granted the Ravens are 30th but the Lions allow the 3rd highest pass rate over expected and have a Top 3 Run Defense in the league to go with it. The Ravens average 29 pass attempts per game and all the analytics in this suggest they are very likely to exceed their average in this game. HAMMER the over

If anyone wants more Sports Betting goodness, I would highly suggest the Prop Drop newsletter for more help cashing your bets.

IMPORTANT: I will send a newsletter at exactly 10am ET tomorrow with 1-2 additional plays and any updates that you need to know.

Until that time,

LETS KEEP GRINDING

-Caruso