Best Player Props for Monday Night Football Week 4

What is UP Grinders!?!?

We had another solid showing yesterday going 4-3 on Official Plays and a winning day is always a good day. I got 4 plays today I love + the Mojo First TD Play of the Day (We have hit 2 of the last 3 first TD bets).

I’ve been in the lab all day finding the best plays for you guys and these are some of my favorite MNF plays you should take.

You should be taking these plays with one of these two juicy promos:

Underdog is giving a Geno Smith Over 0.5 Total Yards Free Square for new users that use code CARUSO when they sign up. (scroll down for my favorite free square play tonight)

Chalkboard is discounting THREE LINES tonight by a lot with NO LIMIT to how much you can bet on them

They Moved:

Kenneth Walker 67.5 Rush Yards to 59.5 Rush Yards

Daniel Jones 34.5 Rush Yards to 29.5 Rush Yards

Geno Smith 248.5 Pass Yards to 239.5 Pass Yards

My Favorite Plays with these Promos are down below

As always use code CARUSO if you’re new to Chalkboard so I can buy a toaster that won’t set my fire alarm off. (True Story: My Roommate woke me up at 1am making pop tarts last week thanks to our stupid toaster smoking.)

Mojo Play of the Day: DK Metcalf First TD +661 (Mojo)

Dating back to his rookie year, DK Metcalf has never had a streak of 3 games without a TD in the first half of the season. He literally is a scoring machine in the first half and this is the perfect matchup for him and he is so due for a big TD early in a matchup perfect for him and his QB as I talk about below.

Other Plays I Love:

DK Metcalf Over 5.0 Receptions (Underdog, PrizePicks)

The Giants run the 5th highest rate of man coverage and a Top 5 rate of blitz and Per tom brolley, DK Metcalf has a 31% target share against man coverage and 36% in 2022 with a 3.7 yards per route run vs the blitz. 40% air yards share vs the Giants two main coverages and Geno Smith thrives against the same scheme. Since 2021, Metcalf has 5+ receptions 21 times and 66+ receiving yards (his current line) 12 times. He hits 5+ catches in 11 of 12 games when he hits that over receiving yards.

Matt Breida Under 51.5 rushing yards (Mojo, Underdog, Chalkboard)

This lines is 8 or 9 yards higher on Mojo than any other book. I would still play this at 46.5 on Chalkboard or 44.5 on Underdog or any other book. Breida has exceeded 30 rushing yards in 1 of 20 games as a Giant and has had 6 or less carries in 19 of 20 games as a Giant. He has not hit 10+ carries since Week 15 of 2020 and despite an increased snap share he is facing the Seahawks who are allowing 2.7 yards per carry which is the lowest number in the NFL. Breida’s line is inflated because he just saw his first game over an 80% snap share in his 84 game NFL career and still saw just 4 carries. They do not want to use him in the run game.

Geno Smith Over 21.5 Completions (Underdog, PrizePicks)

Giants run Cover 1+3 over 55% of the time. Geno vs these two coverages has the 2nd highest completion percentage, most passing TDs, 3rd highest yards per attempt, 2nd most passing yards since the start of last year. With his betting lines right now he has hit 22+ completions 5 more times as a Seahawk than his passing yards and attempts lines. He also hits the completions 80% and 90% of the time when he he hits the other lines and with an elite 73% completion % vs their prime coverages, he should shred them tonight.

Daniel Jones Over 20.5 completions (Underdog, PrizePicks)

I love this line for Jones. The Seahawks have allowed the 2nd most pass attempts in the NFL and have given up 24+ completions to every QB so far. Why not go for the 33.5 pass attempts? Well he has hit 21+ completions in 11 of 12 games with 34+ pass attempts and his one miss he was at 20 completions. He has hit completions more times over the last two years as well. The Seahawks are projected to go crazy this week and the Giants will need to throw a ton to keep up which means more attempts completions for Daniel Jones.

Underdog Free Square Play:

Geno Smith Over 0.5 Total Yards, Daniel Jones Over 20.5 Completions

Chalkboard Mega Discount No Limit Plays:

Kenneth Walker Over 59.5 Rush Yards, Matt Breida Under 46.5 Rush Yards

Daniel Jones Over 29.5 Rush Yards, DK Metcalf Over 5.5 Receptions

Geno Smith Over 239.5 Pass Yards, Matt Breida Under 46.5 Rush Yards

Matt Breida has quickly become our FADE GOD and I will be playing his unders on almost any slip no matter what f**cking toaster I have in my apartment.

More Props to come for Thursday Night Football soon.

Until that time,

Lets. Keep. Grinding.

-Caruso