Best NFL SZN Long Props for 2023

Hello!

It is that time of year to drop my favorite season long props for the NFL season. I will link a full betting guide at the end with all 20 of my favorite plays! Each of them have a full writeup on why I like the pick and the data I found to support it.

All of these come on the Underdog and PrizePicks apps. If you do not have them yet use Code: CARUSO for a free deposit match up to $100.

First, lets talk about my Props of the Year

Diontae Johnson Over 825.5 Rec Yards (Underdog)

Diontae has hit 140+ Targets for three straight years. 248/250 (99%) of WRs with 140+ targets hit the over on this. Even 130+ Targets had a hit rate of 356/360 (99%). Diontae also was targeted on over 28% of his routes this preseason and is locked in as the clear #1 on his offense. This is my favorite play of the year.

Derrick Henry Under 1,175 Rush Yards (Underdog + PrizePicks)

Henry led the NFL in carries last year with 349 in his 7th season. Only 7 RBs hit the 340 carry mark in their 7th season or later. Only 1/7 (14%) ended up breaking 1,175 rush yards in the following year and it was Tiki Barber in 2006. Which was 17 years ago. Take the under

Amon-Ra St Brown Over 1,050 Rec Yards (Underdog)

Amon-Ra had 1,161 receiving yards last year despite dealing with a high-ankle sprain and has averaged 10.3 targets per game in his last 20 games with 40% of snaps. That puts him on pace for 175 targets and the last 46/46 WRs since 2000 with that number or higher have had 1,050 yards or more. Even if Amon-Ra only gets 9 targets per game (153 targets all year), 124/130 WRs since 2000 have had over 1,050 yards. This line is too low.

Bryce Young Under 22.5 Pass TDs (Underdog + PrizePicks)

Young is the #1 Overall Pick starting Week 1 this year so I went back to look at how rookie QBs did in their first year. I sorted it to QBs who played 12+ games and threw at least 300 passes and got 44 QBs. Only 6/44 (13%) Threw for more than 22.5 TDs as a rookie. Up it to 400 attempts as a rookie and you get 5/30 (17%) hitting the over. Only 13 rookies hit 500 PA in a season and just 2/13 (15%) hit the over. Point being here is the increase in pass attempts did not help hitting 23+ Pass TDs. Smash this under.

The Full Guide with all 20 Player Props is right Here

I have something really special for you all on Tuesday.

But until that day comes…

Lets keep grinding baby,

-Caruso