6 Best NFL + NBA Props for Oct 28th

WHAT IS UP GRINDERS!?!?!

We are coming off BACK TO BACK NBA Sweeps going 4-0 over the last two days and coming off a 3-1 NFL Night on Thursday going RED HOT 10-2 over the last Newsletter Props.

I have been in the lab nonstop grinding NFL + NBA Plays you need to be taking today with these FIRE Promos:

Note: Use Code CARUSO if you sign up for anything of these apps for a 100% Deposit Match up to $500

Underdog has THREE Free Squares for New Users:

Jalen Hurts Over 0.5 Total Yards

Joe Burrow Over 0.5 Total Yards

Justin Herbert Over 0.5 Total Yards

Sleeper has a Free Square for New Users

Austin Ekeler Over 0.5 Yards

Sleeper will also have 15-25% Discounts on Players Tomorrow. Will add them in the morning update once they come out.

PrizePicks has a Discount for Tonight

Zion Williamson 36.5 PRA to 31.5 PRA

As always every bet I take is tracked on Pikkit (Best Place to Track Bets across every sports book)

Now onto our Best Plays of the Week 8 Starting with the:

Play of the Day: Nico Collins Over 58.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog, Sleeper, PrizePicks, Chalkboard)

This might be the great play in the history of the Universe against the Panthers who are the 2nd worst team vs outside WRs and Collins plays outside on 80%+ of his snaps. He has a mega elite 3.6 yards per route run vs Zone which the Panthers run 83% of the time and has a 26% target rate vs zone both are by far the highest on the team. Per Scott Barrett The Panthers run the 7th highest rate of single high and Nico Collins has a 5.20 yards per route run vs single high (greatest WR in league history efficiency not joking) . The Panthers also have the lowest pressure rate in the league and Collins is the 5th best WR in the league when his QB is not pressured. Every stat in the book points to a huge game from Collins who also averaged over 20 fantasy points in even numbered weeks (this is Week 8) compared to less than 10 in odd numbered weeks.

Christian Kirk Over 4.5 Receptions (Underdog, Sleeper, PrizePicks, Chalkboard)

The Steelers run the 5th most man coverage which Kirk absolutely dominates against. He has a 32% Target Share vs man and in games vs the Chiefs, Saints, Falcons, who run the 4th, 3rd and 7th most man, Kirk had 14, 6, 12 receptions. The Steelers have ONE really good corner in Joey Porter but he only plays 1% of his snaps in the slot where Kirk plays there 68% of the time and should see the easiest matchup the majority of the time this week setting up for another big performance vs man coverage.

Josh Downs Over 4.5 Receptions (Underdog, Sleeper, PrizePicks, Chalkboard)

Downs has 5+ Receptions in all three of Gardner Minshew’s starts despite playing 2 of the toughest 3 slot defenses during that time. Per Scott Barrett, the Saints have the 6th worst adjusted slot defense and are the 5th toughest vs outside WRs which is perfect for Downs who runs 80% of routes from the slot (3rd highest in the league). The Saints also run cover 1+3 on the majority of their snaps and Downs has a 25% Target Rate vs those coverages which is ELITE especially when he has by far the best matchup on his team. The Colts also threw the ball 44 and 55 times with Minshew in the two starts that were not the Browns (#1 Pass Defense in the NFL). This is a dream matchup for Downs.

Breece Hall Over 70.5 Rush Yards (Underdog, Sleeper, PrizePicks, Chalkboard)

The Giants have allowed the 2nd most rushing yards this year and the lowest adjusted yards before contact. Breece is near the top of almost every RB efficiency metric and the Jets are favored in this game which further helps his chances. And every RB against the Giants to hit 14+ carries had 70+ rush yards and Breece Hall’s Rush Attempts line is set at 15.5 meaning if he gets close he should be almost a lock for 70+ Rush Yards coming off a bye and facing arguably the easiest matchup of the year.

NBA Plays I Love:

Play of the Day: Dennis Schroder Over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (Underdog, Sleeper, PrizePicks, Chalkboard)

Schroder is a DEMON as a starter when he is on 0 days rest in games without Lebron James. He has covered this line in 18 straight games and if you add in him playing 30 or more minutes, he has not missed this line since 2017. Schroder shows us respect every game playing the Fred Van Vleet role. Schroder had 17 and 11 FGA and 17, 15 potential assists with 3 and 2 rebs on 12, 6 reb chances in the first two games. He has covered this line in 12/14 games with 30+ minutes without Lebron and his two misses were 18 PRA and 19 PRA.

Isaiah Hartenstein Over 5.0 Rebounds (Underdog, PrizePicks)

Hartenstien has played 12 Games on No Rest for the Knicks and hit 5+ Rebs in 10/12. He is coming off a game where he played 10 minutes and Mitchell Robinson played 38 minutes for just the 6th time in his 6 year career which means he will probably give up more minutes to Hartenstien tonight against a Pelicans team who just gave up 22, 15, 11 rebounding chances to the Grizzlies main big men. Hartenstein has also hit this line in 5 of 6 career games vs the Pelicans when hitting 15+ minutes which he should easily hit tonight.

That is all for now.

Morning Update tomorrow will Come at EXACTLY 10am ET Tomorrow with 1-2 Additional NFL Plays + NBA Card for Sunday.

If you want more player prop goodness, I would highly recommend the Prop Drop newsletter for more winning picks!

Until next time,

LETS KEEP GRINDING.

-Caruso