6 Best NFL + NBA Props for Oct 30th

WHAT IS UP GRINDERS!!?!?!

2-3 on Newsletter Plays yesterday but we are 16-7 (70%) on our last 23 newsletter props. Just an insane hit rate but we have been doing that all year.

I have some FIRE NFL + NBA Plays cooked up for today you should be taking with these deals:

Underdog has a Free Square Tonight:

Jared Goff Over 0.5 Total Yards (for new users)

Chalkboard has a Free Square Tonight (for anyone)

Luka Doncic Over 0.5 Points (DO NOT MISS THIS)

Sleeper has a Free Square Tonight

Jared Goff Over 0.5 Pass Yards (for new users)

Use code CARUSO when you sign up for any of these apps for up to $500 in Free Bets.

Also, if you tailed every bet I took on Pikkit (best bet tracking app) over the last week, you would be up $2000 if you put $100 on every bet. I have more slips and bets I took today you should check out right here

Onto the plays for today starting with:

Jahmyr Gibbs Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (Underdog, Sleeper, PrizePicks, Chalkboard)

In the Raiders four losses this year, a RB went for 16+ carries every single game giving up 30,27,22,30 rush attempts to the teams that beat them. In The Lions five wins, they had a RB hit 17+ carries in 4 of 5 games with the only miss coming vs the Bucs when Montgomery got hurt (Bucs also allow the #1 pass rate over expected in the NFL). On paper this says if the Lions win Gibbs will hit 16+ attempts, but he also handled 79% of rush attempts last week and Dan Campbell said they want to continue letting Gibbs shine after a career best game. The Lions are favored by 7.5 points which could mean positive gamescript and lots of extra carries this week for Gibbs with an actual lead compared to last week.

Jakobi Meyers Over 5.0 Receptions (Underdog, PrizePicks)

This is a perfect spot for Meyers against a Lions defense that only runs Cover 1, 3,4 where Meyers excels. He has a 27% Target Share versus these coverages and Jimmy Garoppolo had the 2nd highest completion percentage in the NFL vs these since the start of last year He also has the 4th highest yards per attempt and the Lions defense has given up the 10th most receptions this year despite playing the Chiefs, Falcons, Packers, Panthers and Ravens WRs for five of their seven games. In the two games vs good WRs versus Tampa and Seattle they gave up 6+ Receptions to Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf and Chris Godwin, the only Top 2 WR to not reach 6 receptions on those teams was Mike Evans who had 4 but had 10 TARGETS. Good WRs have done well vs the Lions and Meyers is in a perfect spot to continue that trend.

Jimmy Garoppolo Over 34.5 Pass Attempts (Underdog, Sleeper, PrizePicks, Chalkboard)

Every QB against the Lions has 36+ pass attempts this year except Lamar Jackson in a 32 point blow out win last week. But the Raiders are 7.5 point underdogs which means they should be trailing early and throwing the ball a ton. Teams vs the Lions this year throw the ball at a Top 5 Rate over Expected and they also have the #1 Run Defense in the NFL by far which further forces them to beat them through the air. This is a prime matchup for every Raiders WR and TE and Jimmy G will have to throw the ball a ton to keep up with this high powered Lions offense.

Sam LaPorta Over 4.0 Receptions (Underdog, Sleeper, PrizePicks, Chalkboard)

The Raiders only run Cover 1,3,4 and Sam LaPorta sees a target on 28% of his snaps vs these coverages this year which is far better than any player not named St Brown. That is where we get an extra edge as Amon-Ra St Brown is dealing with the flu and may not be 100% for this game which helps LaPorta even more against a Raiders team that are his 2nd best matchup he has seen all season. Despite this, he has 4+ catches in all but one game where he had 3 and his targets have gone up the last 2 weeks seeing 11 and 7 targets against two of the toughest 10 TE Defenses. He is getting better each week and with the Raiders allowing am abysmal 77% catch rate to TEs, LaPorta would only need about 6 targets to hit the over and his elite target rate vs their coverages helps him even more. 

NBA Plays:

Cade Cunningham Over 6.5 Assists (Underdog, Sleeper, PrizePicks, Chalkboard)

This feels like a community LOCK today. @a1fantasy23 on Twitter had the best writeup saying “Cade had 9, 6 (24 min), 10 assists and should be playing 35+ min and should stay off Shai to avoid foul trouble in addition to having 18 potential assists last game”. Cunningham is also 9th in potential assists this season averaging 13.3 per game and is 5th in passes received meaning he gets the ball a ton and is 14th in passes made per game. He is a ball dominant player with a line still way too low for what he has done so far.

Lamelo Ball Over 17.5 Field Goals Attempted (Underdog, Sleeper, PrizePicks, Chalkboard)

A lot of people are on Lamelo’s points tonight but I think FGAs is the way to go. He is averaging 32 minutes per game this year and in 40 career games with 32+ minutes, he has 18+ FGAs in 32/40 games. And when he hits the over on his 20.5 points line, he has 18+ FGAs in 23/24 games with 21+ points. No team has allowed more to PGs than the Nets this season so far by a long shot and this is a good matchup pace wise for Lamelo to keep chucking after shooting poorly to start the season.

That is all for now.

More plays to come for NBA tomorrow!

If you want more player prop goodness, I would highly recommend the Prop Drop newsletter for more winning picks!

Until next time,

LETS KEEP GRINDING.

-Caruso