11 Best Player Props for Nov 4th

WHAT IS UP GRINDERS!?!?!?!

WE ARE BACK TODAY for NFL + NBA and I can not wait for this Sunday in the NFL as we are coming off a SWEEP on Thursday.

I absolutely love every single play on our board today that you NEED to be taking with all of these FREE PROMOS to give you the best chance to win.

As always use CODE CARUSO for a Free Bet up to $500 if you are new to any of these apps, as it is also the best way to support me keeping all my content free!

But here are the BEST Extra Plays

Underdog has THREE Free Squares on Sunday (for new users)

Lamar Jackson Over 0.5 Total Yards

Dak Prescott Over 0.5 Total Yards

Jimmy Garoppolo Over 0.5 Total Yards

Sleeper has TWO Free Squares for Sunday/Monday (for new users)

Josh Allen Over 0.5 Pass Yards

Justin Herbert Over 0.5 Pass Yards

As always, every bet I take is on Pikkit. I have won money EVERY DAY in November so far and $100 bettors would be up over $2000 this month. Don’t miss out on all the action!

Also, CHECK BACK in the morning at exactly 10am ET as I will be adding 1-2 more plays.

But onto our plays of the day starting with:

AJ Brown Over 83.5 Receiving Yards (Underdog, Sleeper, Chalkboard, PrizePicks)

Brown has 125+ Receiving Yards in 6 straight games and the Cowboys run the 2nd highest rate of man coverage and Brown gets targeted on 43% of his snaps vs man with 59% of the Eagles Air Yards vs man to go with a MEGA ELITE 5.10 yards per route run. The Cowboys also run the single high 68% of the time and per @ScottBarrettDFB AJ Brown has a 4.29 yards per route run vs single high which ranks 3rd among all WRs where Devonta Smith ranks 95th vs this coverage. AJ Brown has been unstoppable and absolutely destroys these coverages and has a real chance to see a 7TH STRAIGHT game with 125+ Rec Yards. This is a 2 Unit SUPER LOCK on Sunday

Alvin Kamara Over 36.5 Rec Yards (Underdog, Sleeper, Chalkboard, PrizePicks)

This is the best matchup of the season for Kamara in the receiving game. First, my guy DrProfit noted how Kamara is being targeted on 55% of his snaps vs Cover 2 which the Bears run the most in the NFL and even last year his Target Rate vs Cover 2 is 42%. The Bears also pressure at the 31st rate in the league and Kamara has been targeted 39% of the time on those snaps per Jacob Gibbs. We just saw Austin Ekeler light the Bears up for 94 receiving yards last week and the Bears this year have allowed 100+ more receiving yards to RBs than any other team in the league in addition to allowing the highest yards per reception of any team in the NFL as well.

Keaontay Ingram Under 43.5 Rush Yards  (Underdog, Sleeper, Chalkboard, PrizePicks)

Keaontay Ingram has rushed for more than 20 yards just one time in his 18 game career and has never surpassed this line of 43.5 rushing yards. The Browns are favored by 11.5 points which means the Cardinals could completely abandon the run game if the Browns get out to a big lead at home. We have no idea what to expect from the Cardinals with Clayton Tune and no idea if Keantay Ingram will see the lions share of the work despite being the starter. Yes, he could turn into a magical unicorn and crush this line but there are so many outs here for the under that you have to take it. 

Jonathan Taylor Over 66.5 Rush Yards  (Underdog, Sleeper, Chalkboard, PrizePicks)

Taylor’s line is way to low to not take this against a Panthers team allowing the highest percentage of run plays in the league. The Panthers have allowed the 3rd most rushing yards and the 2nd highest yards per carry meaning lots of explosive plays. Taylor has gone UP in rushing yards in four straight games leading to 75 and 95 the last two weeks and the Colts are favored in this game and Taylor’s line is 14.5 rush attempts which would imply this line should be closer to over 70 rushing yards giving us value here.

For NBA this week, all of my plays will be on Twitter dropping at 12:30pm ET and all of the full writeups will be right here:

Plays For Today:

Lebron James Under 8.0 Rebounds (Underdog, PrizePicks)

Lebron has only been averaging 11 rebound chances per game and is converting on over 80% of them where the league average is close to 60%. He will have to get 9 rebounds to cover and no SF has done this vs the magic this year

Talen Horton-Tucker Over 5.5 Assists (Underdog, Sleeper, Chalkboard, PrizePicks)

THT is averaging the 12.8 potential assists which is 9th among all players. Every PG to play the T Wolves so far has 6+ Assists and 13+ Potential Assists and the HAS 7+ Assists in 9/10 games when playing 25+ minutes with Lauri Markkanen

Zion Williamson Over 4.5 Assists (Underdog, Sleeper, Chalkboard, PrizePicks)

Zion plays the Hawks who allow Top 3 Most Assists to SFs and PFs where Zion will be playing 100% of the time. He is averaging 10 potentials per game but only converting 40% which is super low and every SF/PF to play the Hawks saw more potential assists than their season averaging meaning Zion should have close to 12-13 potentials today and would only need to convert about 38% to cover

Lamelo Ball Under 8.0 Assists (Underdog, PrizePicks)

Ball is 8th in assists but 17th in potential assists averaging 11.5 per game meaning he converts 70% of his assists which is higher than every player in the Top 10 of Assists. The Pacers have been above average defending assists this year and only let 2 players hit 9+ assists, Donovan Mitchell and Payton Pritchard who both had exactly 9 and had 11 and 14 potentials which means they were insanely efficient.

Paolo Banchero Under 7.5 Rebounds (Underdog, Sleeper, Chalkboard, PrizePicks)

Similar to Lebron, Banchero is averaging low rebound chances per game and his average rebound distance is 8.9 feet which means he is frequently far away from the basket. Wendell Carter being out helps him but he will usually be guarding Lebron who has been farther away from the basket than ever on offense this year.

Alperen Sengun Over 5.0 Assists (Underdog, PrizePicks)

Sengun had 7+ Assists in every game vs the Kings last year and every center to play them this year had more potential assists than their season average. Sengun averages 10.5 potentials per game and should see extra vs the Kings in a super fast paced game

Paolo Banchero Over 13.5 FG Attempts (Underdog, Sleeper, Chalkboard, PrizePicks)

He has hit this in 15/16 games without Wendell Carter while seeing a 22%+ Usage Rate and his one miss was 13 FGA and 15 free throws meaning if he did not get fouled to kingdom come, he would be 100% on this spot. HAMMER THIS LINE.

That is all for now.

More plays to come for NFL+NBA tomorrow!

If you want more player prop goodness, I would highly recommend the Prop Drop newsletter for more winning picks!

Until next time,

LETS KEEP GRINDING.

-Caruso